IndexInvesting is becoming more and more popular. Investors can choose a fund that tracks a known index and passively invest in the market. Over the years, the number of fund tracking indices has increased dramatically.
Some indices are capitalization-weighted, such as the S&P 500 and the FTSE Russell 2000.Other indices are weighted by price, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the DJIA.These indices have been the basis for many investment vehicles for investors, including mutual funds andexchange traded funds(ETF).
New index investment options includefundamentally weighted indices, such as the FTSE RAFI US 1000 Index and the WisdomTree U.S. Dividend Index An index based on one or more financial indices, such asValue in books, cash flow, income, sales or dividends.WisdomTree also offers a pair of indices that measure US and international large-cap value indices, which contain at least 300 companies.These funds offer investors a mix of passive index investing and actively managed funds.
In this article, we examine the benefits and risks of using primarily weighted indices as an investment vehicle.
Threshold Weighted Ratios
OInvestment Pricing Model(CAPM) is the basis for many index models, particularly for capitalization-weighted indices like the S&P 500. In general, the CAPM assumes that future cash flows can be determined for any investment. This helps identify the true value of each title. Because the market is efficient, it precisely matches the price of the asset to its own price.Determined CAPM value. Efficient market theory states that a stock's price reflects the market's best estimate of the company's true underlying value at any time.
When the true value is not true
But what if the price is above or below the “true value”? Does this mean that the true value is false? Not necessarily. Rather, it means that each security trades above or below its final actual value. If each security is trading above or below its true value, capitalization-weighted indices are overly exposed to bonds that are trading above their true value.fair valuesand underweight assets trading below their true market value.
If investors invest more money in securities above fair value and less money in securities below fair value, they receive a lower return. It also means that capitalization-weighted indices are generating sub-optimal returns. In a capitalization-weighted index, all stocks that are overvalued are overweight, while those that are undervalued are underweight.
Here is an example to explain the performance of a capitalization-weighted index compared to, say, abalanced index. In fact, with an equally weighted index, overvalued stocks are unlikely to be overbought or underbought. Given the same weight, all large stocks are underweight regardless of whether they are expensive, and all small stocks are overweight regardless of whether they are expensive.
Suppose there are only two stocks on the market and each has a real value of $1,000 according to the CAPM. One stock is valued by the market at $500, while the market values the other at $1,500. The capitalization-weighted index would place 25% of the total portfolio in undervalued stocks and 75% of the total portfolio in overvalued stocks. The equally weighted index requires an investor to invest the same amount in each stock in his portfolio. In other words, each stock would represent 50% of the portfolio, regardless of whether it was overvalued or undervalued.
Five years later, the valuation errors are corrected and both shares are valued at $1,000. In this case, if you had based your portfolio on a capitalization-weighted index, your return would be zero. On the other hand, an investor investing his money in the equally weighted index would earn a 33.5% return. The lower priced action would generate $1,000 for the portfolio, while the higher priced action would lose $330 for the portfolio. The following table shows this example.
Fundamentally weighted indices offer an alternative here.basic indexing,A 2005 study by Robert Arnott, Jason Hsu, and Phillip Moore argued that fundamental-weighted indices outperformed the S&P 500, a traditional capitalization-weighted index, by about 1.97% per year over the 43-year period studied since 1962. until 2004. The basic factors used in the study were book value, cash flow, revenue, sales, dividends, and employment.
Although a difference of 1.97% may seem insignificant whencompoundcan double the size of an investor's portfolio in 35 years. This clearly represents better performance compared to traditional stock-weighted returns. Keep in mind that studies show that many mutual funds underperform the broader market. So, over the years, it makes a real difference where investors put their long-term investments, even if they don't.Backtestingdoes not include the impact of fees and taxes.
The positive side
The argument in favor of weighted indices is primarily that the price of a stock is not always the best estimate of the company's true underlying value. Prices can be influenced by speculators, impulsive traders,hedge fundsand institutions that buy and sell shares for reasons that may not berelative to the underlying fundamentalssuch as for tax purposes. These influences can affect a stock's price for days or years, making it difficult to create an investment strategy that can produce consistently superior returns.
The theory states that if a stock's price falls for reasons unrelated to its fundamentals, it is likely, but not certain, that an overweight position in that stock will generate above-average returns. Similarly, stocks with prices rising faster than their fundamentals indicate overvalued stocks that are likely to underperform the market.
Like capitalization-weighted indices, fundamental indices do not require the investor to analyze the underlying securities. However, they must be rebalanced periodically by buying more shares of companies whose prices have fallen by more than one fundamental metric, such as:
As more indices are created, investors will have more investment options to suit their investment needs and personal style. Income investors may want to consider dividend-based ratios, while growth investors may prefer sectors that they believe will grow faster than the broader market.
the counter argument
So what are the downsides of investing in fundamentally weighted indices? First, the cost of capital based on fundamentally weighted indices can be higher than for equity-weighted indices. Since the fundamentally weighted indices are still young, there is not yet enough track record to assess whether these rising costs will continue. Proponents of fundamental-weighted indices claim that they will have higher turnover than capitalization-weighted indices due to the need to adjust the portfolio for fundamentals. However, they have not yet achieved the returns of the large index funds. As a result, its cost may be higher due to its smaller size. They must be rebalanced periodically by buying and selling shares to align the fund with the index and incur trading costs similar to those of equity-weighted indices. Therefore, the cost of investing in fundamentally weighted indices may decrease as you get closer to the size of the capitalization-weighted indices.
The other criticism of fundamental linkage is that this new approach may not stand the test of time as the market has a strong tendency to signify reversals. This means that whichever approach an investor chooses, they can achieve similar results over time.
Fundamental indices supporters point out that repeated research by Kenneth French of the Tuck School at Dartmouth and Eugene Fama of the University of Chicago has shown that small-cap companies andworth actionsthey have outperformed other stocks in significant historical periods and are yet to return to the average.That doesn't mean it won't happen; it simply means that there are ways to beat the market with fundamentally weighted indices if investors understand the risks. Seemsbenjamin grahamand your studentWarren Buffett, understood this concept years ago. Grahamis is quoted as saying: "In the short term, the market is a voting machine, but in the long term it is a weighing machine."
Fundamental-weighted indices are growing in popularity, and as a result, new opportunities to invest in them are emerging.mutual funds and ETFsarose. Investors interested in fundamentally weighted index-based funds should treat these investment opportunities like any other investment. You must carry out the necessary analyzes before committing your capital. Depending on your personal situation, this includes understanding global and regional economic performance, finding sectors that offer the best opportunities, and evaluating the fundamentals that offer the best potential returns.
the end turned out
Ultimately, to believe that fundamentally weighted funds will outperform the S&P 500, the common benchmark, investors must make two assumptions:
- Whatever the causes, the misvaluation that led to historically outperforming fundamentally weighted indices will persist (value investing will not return to the mean); AND
- The market will see overvalued stocks eventually return to the mean instead of staying overvalued.
If you believe the market offers better opportunities for those focused on value, growth, or income, investing in fundamentally weighted index-based funds and ETFs may be a good alternative for you. They offer investors the opportunity to invest in a combination of companies represented by an index that may outperform the broader market. Depending on the index, they may also be at greater risk if the index underperforms the market. As well as the evaluationFundamentals of an action, investors should do their homework by evaluating the index and the likely costs they will incur. In either case, value, growth and income investors should consider viable investment alternatives.